Who we are
Sports Betting as an investment
Michael Gibbons' Sports is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. I handicap sports based upon our proprietary handicapping systems, situational pattern analysis, conditional probability gaming theory, and contrary opinion. Because of the power of my work, my clients have averaged over 226 Net Units profit per year over the last eleven years. I publish the Gibbons' Sports Best Bets Newsletter on a daily basis.
In addition to being a sports handicapper, I am also a highly respected stock, bond, currency and futures trader. I am quoted in many top financial publications including Timer Digest and Forbes. I won the highly prestigious Timer Digest Timer of the Year award in 2002 and 2007, and my clients have hundreds of millions of dollars in assets under management. I have outperformed over a hundred of the world's best investment minds on a consistent basis. I bring the same kind of analysis to the world of sports investing. Many professional and amateur sports investors in Las Vegas, the nation, and the world, rely on me for my sports plays, research and information.
I have a BA in Economics from California State University Long Beach. I worked for several large corporations as cost controller and head of finance. My interest changed to markets after my corporate experience, where my unconventional methods and original thinking could be better applied. I was a pioneer in technical market analysis and was one of the first to discover stock index arbitrage in the early 1980s. I was a financial broker and owned my own brokerage firm. In addition, I was one of the first registered commodity trading advisors. I have long background in probability theory and statistics, and my stock screen/trading model is considered by many of my clients to be the best in the world. I was asked by several of my major investment clients to apply my methods to sports betting ten years ago. After a doing intensive research, it was clear that sports betting was highly profitable if done properly. Sports betting should be viewed as a viable investment class as evidenced by the fact that it is a way to diversify holdings and performance is not correlated to other common investments.
Because of my success both in trading financial markets and handicapping sports, I have been interviewed by Forbes reporter John Dobosz seven times over the past five years, and by Timer Digest several hundred times. My interviews appear on the internet as well as in print editions. How many sports handicappers do you know that have been quoted numerous times by influential financial publications? I can tell you the answer to that question-no one else on the planet.
http://www.forbes.com/2003/01/18/cz_jd_0117adviser.html
I do not gamble-I invest (and there is a huge difference). Investors have a statistical advantage or edge that will always payoff over the long run. Gamblers create risk, because in no way can they obtain a long term edge-that is, probability is always working against them. As an example, craps, roulette, and video poker players are losers because the house has an irrefutable edge in all of these games. Most sports bettors play as if they were gamblers-and they lose many thousands of dollars each year because they simply do not have the knowledge necessary to win. To keep and maintain an edge, I use proprietary selection systems, contrary opinion, conditional probability, and statistical pattern recognition to forecast game results.
If you don't think that a winning percentage (including money line sports ) of 54-56% is profitable enough-you have unrealistic expectations. I know of no handicapper public or private, that can win more than 55% of the time over many thousands of games-it simply cannot be done. If you think you or anyone else can win over 55% of the time-you are wrong. Even if you are a winner and you keep a complete record of your plays, you will see that you win no more than 55% of the time. Winning 54-55% of the time gives you an acceptable return on investment over time.
Sports books are taking a net position most of the time
Most sports investors accept the premise that sports books set a line to induce bettors to place equal amounts of money on both sides of a given game. This means that sports books are (in theory) "hedged" on a specific game and this fact enables them to make money regardless of the outcome. This is because they collect the "vigorish" or "juice" for their services. You will be surprised to learn as we will prove, that sports books are not good handicappers. In fact, they are fairly poor handicappers because the vast majority of sports books win less than 4.55%, which is the return that they would make if they were acting solely as a market maker. (Here we are talking point spread bets only-if we take exotic bets into account, sports books are very poor handicappers because their net take is far removed from the inherent profitability of teasers, parlays, proposition bets, etc.).
As I will show below, sports book betting lines are correct most of the time. But, sports books are poor handicappers because they have negative overall results from their handicapping. Hard to believe? Las Vegas sports books, offshore sports books, and your neighborhood bookie are not just collecting the juice on games as most people believe, but are actually taking a net position on games much of the time. This means they are speculating on game outcomes-just like everyone else. They do so because they are apparently not satisfied with the guaranteed profit if they just acted as a middleman. They are not willing to accept the income made available to them by simply collecting the vigorish inherent in the betting structure. The amount of risk they assume varies of course, and can range from a small risk position to a large risk position.
We have statistics from Las Vegas sports books, and their net take or winning percentage on all sports is only about 3%. This is 34% less than the intrinsic sports book vigorish percentage (4.55%) if they were hedged and just acting as a broker for both sides on point spread bets. We know therefore by deduction, that sports books are taking a side at least part of the time (and we suspect most of the time).
It is also clear to us that sports books are not betting against the majority of the public as most believe, but are in fact, really betting with the majority of the public most of the time. This is the only logical conclusion you can derive from the facts. The majority of the public loses more net units than they win-and so do most sports books.
So when you read some report that sports books are allegedly claiming to be betting against the public majority, nothing could be further from the truth. Sports books are nearly as wrong in their betting as the majority of the public, whose perceptions they claim to be measuring. However, because of the inherent profitability of teasers, parlays, etc., most sports books still make a profit. Still, they are net losers on sides, totals, and money line bets, because they are poor handicappers.Since sports betting is legal only in Nevada, Nevada sports books generally have significant corporate money behind them and are very stable financially. Non-Nevada sports books that go out of business generally have taken a large unhedged position on a game or series of games. When they lose big, they will often just go out of business. Going out of business is about their greed-not the inherent mathematics of bookmaking.
Winners bet against the majority of players much of the time
Did you know that you generally want to bet with the minority of players on any given game? We are certain you have probably not heard this anywhere else, that is why we know it is true. What everyone knows about sports betting is not worth very much. What few know, is often worth a lot. The reason you want to be in the minority of bettors most of the time, is that the minority of players have much larger average bets than the majority of players. The logic is clear once you think about it for a few minutes. What is the "line" after all? The "line" is established by sports books to have even amounts of money on either side-not even numbers of players (in theory-but not in practice as we discuss above). It is the number of players on each side of every game that is the critical factor in a proper grasp of what really goes on in sports investing.
It is incorrect if you think we just go against the public to win-we bet with the minority of the public. However, this minority of the public consists primarily of professional sports bettors. The losing side of most games is where you find the majority of bettors, and they lose consistently. Losers have small average bet sizes because they lose more than they win over long periods of time. If you win and win regularly, you obviously make large bets. Winning professional sports investors have large average bets because they win more than they lose, and are in the minority most of the time on any specific game. The majority of bettors have much smaller average bets- as you will see clearly from the example we provide below.
Assume that 20% of the players control 50% of the money and that 80% of the players control the other 50% of the money. By deduction, the average bet size for the minority of the players is .50/.20 = 2.5 Units versus .50/.80 = .625 Units for the majority of the players. The average bet size for the minority of players is at least 4 times larger than the average bet size for the majority of players (2.5/.625=4.0). Of course, the ratio can vary widely depending on the specific game situation.
If we assume that the winners are right between 54-58% of the time, then the losers are right between 46-42% of the time. Big money obviously got big by being right most of the time, and this is accomplished with larger average bets. This is contrary opinion at work. So if you have a small bankroll and are making small bets, it is because you have been wrong too frequently. You are losing because you have been with the majority of bettors on most games who are wrong more often than they are right. You need to know which side of a game the majority of bettors is on, and bet against them.
How do I know that this theory is true? I know it through many years of personal experience, careful observation and deduction. Contrary opinion works in every area of investment-and sports is no different. Out of favor investments typically outperform things that everyone wants. The same is true in sports. The majority of our wins come on plays that only the minority of players would want. The fact that the majority of handicappers who are losers are on the other side of most plays I issue, reaffirms the validity of my theory.
Bottom line: if you are betting small-you are a loser. That is right-you are a loser. Nothing personal-just hard, cold facts. If you are a winner, you are betting big and you are betting big because you win more than you lose on a consistent basis-it is that simple. If you have lost more than you have won, you need my research. I provide you with a significant edge.
The Vegas Rotation-it pays to be contrary
I discovered an advanced money management and late-game play selection strategy I call the "Vegas Rotation." By using this method, it is possible to greatly enhance returns using conditional probability (future outcomes are sensitive to the past). One bet is not equal to another and anyone that thinks that all bets are equal, knows very little about gaming probability theory. The sequence of wins and losses is important as are consecutive wins and losses. Unlike independent probability (the outcome of a single coin toss or multiple coin tosses has no impact on the probability of the next toss-it is still 50/50) the result of prior games and bets, influences the expected results of subsequent games and bets.
I need to repeat this: sports gaming is based on conditional probability-not independent probability. A coin being tossed has no memory-heads can come up 100 times in a row, but the next toss of the coin is still a 50-50 proposition. In sports betting, the results of prior games influences the likely results of future games. I use this reality to make money.
If you think the results of
sports games are
random, you should never bet on sports because you would obviously
be wasting your money. However, even if you think
that, you could not be more wrong. Poker, blackjack, and sports
betting are the only three areas of gaming where the player can have a
statistical advantage. This is because the prior cards dealt
(or completed games in our case),
influence the probability of winning of games yet to be played. All other forms of
gaming are losing propositions because
the player cannot obtain a
statistical advantage or edge.
There are two parts to the Vegas
Rotation Strategy
The Vegas Rotation Strategy consists of two parts. The first part is based on the proprietary handicapping methods and systems we use largely derived from my financial market analysis models. Obviously, you will not be given the methods and systems as part of your subscription. The second part is The Vegas Rotation Late-Game Strategy and plays that you will be given as a daily and one year subscriber. The Late-Game Strategy is based upon observing and recording the results of completed games for that day (and sometimes the prior day), and how the results of completed games can influence the games that have yet to start (conditional probability theory).
The Late-Game Strategy is used in addition to the plays I send you, because VR plays often develop after my initial plays have been issued. My VR Late-Game Plays have won nearly 82% of the time over the past seven years.
The more you win-the more you pay and it's not 4.55%
The bookmaker's fee or commission is called juice or vigorish, and it is paid by winners-not by losers as is commonly believed. Losers do not pay any vigorish. A loser on a game would lose everything put at risk-even without the services of a bookmaker. The higher your overall winning percentage, the higher the percentage of vigorish you will pay. The higher your winning percentage, the more your sports book makes from you. Virtually no one pays 4.55% in vigorish. If you lose more than you win, you pay progressively less vigorish (as a percentage) as your overall winning percentage declines. If you win more than you lose, you pay progressively more vigorish as your winning percentage increases. As can be observed in the example below, if you were 100-0 in point spread bets, you would pay your bookmaker 9.09% in vigorish-not 4.55%.
A bettor that wins 55% of the time pays 5% in vigorish, while a bettor that wins 57% of the time pays 5.18% to his bookmaker. If you can win 60% of the time (which is unlikely) you pay 5.45%. This assumes even bet sizes which is unrealistic, but the numbers above show that few, if any, bettors pay 4.55%.
The purpose of a sports book is to provide a two-way market for bettors. In return, the sports book charges a fee or commission much like a broker does for a real estate transaction or a stock broker for a trade. If you placed 100 bets at $110.00 each (to win $100.00) and you were 100-0, you would have bet $11,000 (100 X $110.00) and you would have made a profit of $10,000. You risked $11,000 but your net profit was $10,000 so you won 90.9% ($10,000/$11,000) of what you put at risk. The bookmaker kept $1000.00 in this example as vigorish-or 9.09%. If you win 100% of your bets, your "man" is keeping almost 9.1% of your winnings. Like it or not, your bookmaker makes a living off of winning bettors, and the more you win, the stronger the partnership you have with your book.
Do you sincerely want to win?
My experience is that at least 90% of all sports bettors do not have the proper financial mental blueprint to be successful- which causes them to lose. To win, you must think and act like the rich. Rich people think differently than poor people. (For more information on obtaining wealth and the way to re-program your mind, read "Secrets of the Millionaire Mind" by T. Harv Eker).
If you want to win in sports betting, you must have the proper mental state and have the discipline to take our plays precisely as we provide them-day after day, month after month. Subscribers that are highly disciplined have found themselves to be part of the small number of successful sports bettors in the world. If you are sincere about making money at sports betting and you have the proper mental framework necessary to win, you can use my information to help you make money.
If you are currently a winning sports investor, you can use my plays to verify your own analysis. Some of my subscribers have greatly increased the number of winners by using my work as a check on their own.
Sports Services (95% are scams)
If you want to know about the current state of sports handicapping, just look at the lies, deception, and hype that the majority of sports services use to promote their plays to the public. Claims of 90% documented winners, a Game of the Year/Game of the Month every day, *10,000* star lock of the century, inside information lock of the decade, never lost in this situation, etc. The only thing more amazing than the bs that most sports services put out is the gullibility and stupidity of their customers.
My opinion is that possibly 5% of all sports services are legitimate, and the balance are scams. Most of the operators of these services are nothing more than low class hustlers and are the kind of people that sell fake Rolex watches on the streets of New York. And some of the big media guys are the worst offenders.
As you should have noticed, virtually all sports services rely on a combination of super aggressive in your face marketing coupled with highly deceptive hype, with frequent use of "locks", "Games of the...", and "guaranteed" plays. There is no such thing as a "lock" and there never will be. Winning in sports investing is about probability-not about certainty. A lock implies certainty-which absolutely no one can attain in sports investing. Therefore, any handicapper that uses the word "lock" is insulting your intelligence. The same goes for "Games of the...." You need to get that this is marketing hype-to get you to buy their plays. We can assure you that all of their "Games of the Year" are no better in terms of performance, than any other game. A common scam is the "pay after you win" policy which is also deceptive. The sports service might be flipping a coin to determine plays, and then charging you if they win-which probably is less than 50% of the time. The only thing that matters is long term performance-not a guarantee for a day, a week, or a month. If you think otherwise, you are deceiving yourself as much as the sports service that is trying to deceive you.
Where can I find the track records of every single sports handicapper? Good question. Unlike others in this industry, I fully disclose the results of my plays on a daily and historical basis and I also calculate the P&L for my daily plays. This process is called full disclosure.
Before you pay any handicapper, ask them for a complete track record (results for every season) in tabular form as I provide on the Track Record page. If you ask for their record, I doubt they will provide it because I have not seen a complete track record for any other handicapper on the internet. The absence of such disclosure tells you a lot about the ability of other handicappers to pick winners on a long term basis. They all hype their alleged short term winning streaks-that is all bs in my view. Where is the long term record? Have they won or lost on a long term basis?
I have consistently produced winners for ten years and we have averaged 236 Net Units per year. There are many pretentious pretenders out there-I offer the real deal. I do not find it necessary to hype myself or brag about how great I am, etc. My track record speaks for itself with nothing added by me. All the plays I issue to clients have at least a 56% theoretical probability of winning which includes money line sports.
I provide my clients with the edge needed to be successful. However, less than 10% of all sports bettors have the proper psychological profile to be winners in my view. You must be totally disciplined and have a very high level of self esteem if you want to be a winner. This excludes at least 90% of all sports bettors, and is part of the reason for the high failure rate.
Successful sports handicapping is not easy. If you think otherwise, you do not understand gaming probability theory and realistic rates of return. I stated six years ago on this site that sports investing is always a marathon-never a sprint. I notice a few other handicappers have "borrowed" my phrase without giving me proper credit. That aside, it is more true than ever that winning in sports investing is a long term affair. I have found over the years that those with the shortest term investment views are the least likely to succeed. If you are short term oriented-you are a gambler-not a sports investor. Investors can win-gamblers always lose.
Monitoring services (who is monitoring the monitors?)
I am sometimes asked about "monitoring services" and my first logical response is to ask: who is monitoring the monitors? There are various kinds in the country and the problem we have with them is that most of them derive their revenue directly or indirectly from the sports services being monitored. This is a very clear conflict of interest that is simply not acceptable to us and should not be acceptable to you. There may be an economic incentive to fabricate track records to show those being monitored in a positive light. Since the database of records is maintained by the monitoring service, results can be easily manipulated to show anything they want.
If a mutual fund monitoring service was in any way associated with the mutual fund being monitored-investors would immediately see the conflict of interest. Most sports investors fail to see this contradiction, and assume that being monitored adds legitimacy. Such is not the case. In fact, it may well be the exact opposite.
I work many hours a week doing research and preparing our sports plays for distribution to our clients. It is simply too easy for a sports monitoring service to favor a specific handicapper and create a competitive disadvantage for the rest of the services being monitored-including mine. There are just too many ways it can be dishonest, since no one can see the plays before the games start for all those being monitored. I am also of the opinion that some monitoring services have created a number of the sports services whose plays they allegedly monitor.
Since at least 95% of all professional handicappers lose over the very long term, I am skeptical when I see a monitoring service that shows the majority of their handicappers with winning records. This is typical of monitoring services to show that their particular group of handicappers are profitable. However, from a statistical standpoint, this claim is clearly absurd. What you can reasonably conclude from all of this should be fairly obvious: the integrity and accountability of most monitoring services is questionable, and more than a few are outright scams.
Unsolicited Testimonials
"You are truly unique and incredible-the world's most consistent and profitable handicapper. I started with a little over $6,000 in August 2006, and now it's over 13K. Many talk a good game-you deliver the results."
T. Reid, Las Vegas, NV
"I was very skeptical when a friend referred me to your site. I had lost with every other handicapper I ever tried. I see now why sports books subscribe to your service-they can't afford not to. With your plays and suggested money management, I have netted $26,560."
J. Niles, Dallas, TX
"I thought your track record was bullshi* when I first came to your site. But after almost three years as your client, you are 100% the real deal and more. No one else uses the kind of analysis you do to handicap games. That has to be a large part of the reason you are so successful. Congrats."
T. Hamal, Los Angeles, CA
"As managing partner of a private equity fund, our clients and us have made 1.9 million dollars in profits with your sports research over the past two years. Your are doing the public a large favor by even offering your information to them. "
P. Beirne, Big Cayman Island
"97% of sports handicappers are scumbags and crooks. Unlike them, you actually make money for your customers. The hardest thing to believe before I subscribed was that you actually show daily results. You also provide a complete historical track record for every sport for your entire history. No other handicapper does that on the internet-no one. I started with $12,380 a year ago, and I have almost doubled my money with you. I wish I knew about your service seven years ago- it would have saved me many thousands of dollars I spent on other handicappers."
T. Andrews, New York, NY
"Awesome! Another huge winning NHL season in 2007-2008 and another winning NFL season. What can be better?"
B. Medino, Miami, FL
